GAME RESULTS
Results through the selected week
Scores show the selected team first. Opponent records include all exported games through the selected week. FBS opponents only; games against other divisions are not included.
BAYESIAN MASSEY
Every rank has a probability.
Explore the rankings—and how certain they really are.
Loading ranking snapshots…
Team focus
RANK DISTRIBUTION
Where could this team rank?
All ranks shown. Hover or focus a bar for its exact probability.
SEASON TRAJECTORY
How the picture changed
Band: 90% equal-tailed rank interval. Team coverage can change each week. P = postseason.
THE FIELD
Rankings with uncertainty
Teams ordered by mean rank across the full matrix. “Top 25” shows the first 25 teams in that ordering. Select a team to explore it above.
Each cell is the probability of one exact rank. Displayed ranks are not renormalized; the rest of a team’s probability may lie outside this view.
Understanding the method and these probabilities
The Bayesian Massey model estimates team strength from game margins, with hierarchical shrinkage and strength that can change over time. These college football snapshots come from the supplied ranking project.
Each source matrix has ranks in rows (rank 1 is best) and teams in columns. A team’s column sums to 100%. Mean rank is the probability-weighted average of all its possible ranks. P(top 25) sums the probabilities of ranks 1 through 25; it is not an AP poll rank or a probability of making a playoff.
The supplied R export uses draws retained inside a 90% elliptical credible set of team strengths. The dashboard summarizes those exported probabilities, not the full unfiltered posterior. Its 90% rank intervals are equal-tailed marginal intervals calculated from each exported column; they are not simultaneous guarantees across teams. Discrete intervals can contain more than 90% probability.
Rankings are relative to the teams present in each snapshot. Early weeks can include very few teams. A high top-25 probability in a small field is therefore not evidence of a national top-25 position. The matrices alone do not provide sampling diagnostics or establish model calibration.
Read the copied model specification (background document; the retained R and Stan files describe the implemented export).